The degree of unpopularity of the C H Tung Administration (CHTA) in Hong Kong is reflected by the frequency of emphasis by Beijing leaders to call on the people to support it. Beijing is helping to write the script to an unfolding black comedy.

The CHTA and Beijing appear unaware of how opposition may be sustained post 1 July. The opposition is coming directly from the people through rising civic involvement. CHTA could lose many battles thereby further denting its credibility.

What Hong Kong people are unable to do via the formal political process, folks are pouring energy into specific opportunities to show their continuing frustration. This is no time to upset people by mean spirited actions - an example is the decision to reduce voting time for the November District Councils elections.

A. Aftermath - The 1 July Effect

1. Not over yet: The public protest of 1 July was so stunning because of the enormous spontaneous outpouring of discontent not only over the national security legislation but also poor governance. Indeed, the discontent over Article 23 legislation was a reflection of the CHTA's poor governance record. As a result a substantial amount of civic energy has been released.

2. Energy flow: That energy has to go somewhere. It is being channeled into specific public issues. This energy is likely to present a daily challenge to the CHTA.

3. Evidence: Lets examine three recent and on-going campaigns to see how civic opposition is mounting:

(a) Pets in public housing - government announced it would enforce regulation that it had previously turned a blind eye to. Pet owners in public housing had to get rid of the animals by 1 October. The authorities have been pressured into reviewing the decision.

(b) Harbour reclamation - within a week of the launch of "Friends of the Harbour" to continue the civic fight against excessive reclamation, the public outpouring of support has been vigorous including through public donation.

(c) Tertiary education - academics are joining hands to voice their unhappiness against poorly thought out education reform proposals, including the shot-gun wedding to merge two universities.

N.B. The point here is not to argue about the correctness of these causes but to show the variety, intensity and strength of the growing civic opposition. I need to also declare an interest - I am personally connected to (b).

B. Fighting smart ... government beware!

1. Not usual suspects: The people involved in these campaigns are "not the usual suspects". They have not been previously identified by the authorities as "the opposition" affiliated with opposition parties.

2. Doing homework: The fresh faces do their homework well. They are prepared to rebut government's arguments at every corner with solid research, including taking the government to court (as over harbour reclamation).

3. Learning the ropes: Even more interestingly, the new opposition is learning fast how to campaign and get media attention. They have an enormous capacity to learn how to navigate the political landscape.

1. Problem of legitimacy: The recent string of Hong Kong visitors being invited to Beijing to meet national leaders to discuss Hong Kong issues have all been told to support the TCHA. Beijing appears unaware of the irony of national leaders having to repeatedly shore-up the TCHA's legitimacy.

2. Smart opposition: As the people get smarter at civic campaigning, they pose a greater threat to the TCHA especially if the authorities are unable to come forth with well argued policy proposals. The impression of incompetence will be continuously reinforced, which in turns threaten TCHA's legitimacy further. The cycle is likely to be vicious.

3. Costly "actions": This is not the time to upset the people by mean-spirited actions, such as the recent announcement that voting hours for the November District Councils elections will be reduced by 3 hours. Watch out!

Despite Beijing's helping hand in shoring up legitimacy via political and economic means, the public appears to have been galvanized to take campaigning to a higher, smarter level, which poses the greatest challenge where the CHTA is weakest i.e. competence to govern.

The pragmatic move by Beijing to enable the CHTA to withdraw the Article 23 legislation from the legislative agenda is being compromised by actions taken locally that will upset the public, such as reducing voting hours.

Only an administration with no political sensitivity would do such a thing at this time. It could backfire big time and the CHTA will have no one to blame except itself.

Beijing will be forced into the embarrassment cycle of having to continuously asking people to support a shambolic administration.

Civic Exchange - HK's independent think tank

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