Beijing nudges Tung into retracting security Bill

(The Straits Times, 6 September 2003)

Its move is dictated by wanting to maintain stability in HK, already recession-hit and shaken by Sars

By Ching Cheong

NEWS ANALYSIS

HONG KONG - Hong Kong leader Tung Chee Hwa's decision to withdraw the controversial anti-subversion Bill was made on the advice of Beijing, which felt the time was not yet right to introduce its new version.

China's top decision-making body on the territory, the Central Leading Group (CLG) on Hong Kong, arrived at the decision after a careful assessment of the situation, a well-placed source in Beijing told The Straits Times yesterday.

With Hong Kong's recession-hit economy still struggling to recover from the Sars outbreak, the CLG felt that stability remained the top priority.

Enacting the security Bill now could trigger more public unhappiness and jeopardise the central government's efforts to help revive the Hong Kong economy, the source said.

'Restoring stability is the overriding political task right now. Therefore, the government and the public should stay focused on reviving the sapping economy instead of re-opening controversial debates,' the source said.

Mr Tung's announcement yesterday came just one day after newly-appointed Security Secretary Ambrose Lee restarted his consultation process on the Bill.

Mr Tung had earlier pledged that he would re-open public consultation this month. Mr Lee had also said recently that a new consultation paper would be ready before month's end.

The source described Mr Tung's attempt to restart consultation now as 'foolhardy' and 'reflected both his poor grasp of the political situation and his inability to prioritise the agenda'.

Beijing believes that the July 1 demonstration in Hong Kong by more than 500,000 people was rooted in the territory's ailing economy. It has, therefore, gone out of its way to help revive the economy, including signing a landmark free-trade agreement and giving preferential treatment, such as zero tariffs on some goods, to companies doing business with mainland China.

Beijing's recent goodwill gestures have seen a tentative return to stability in Hong Kong and the leadership in mainland China does not want a renewal of debate on the controversial security Bill to derail its efforts.

Beijing also hopes that shelving the Bill will help shore up support in Hong Kong for the central government which has been dented by the July protest.

Indeed, pro-Beijing political parties in Hong Kong found themselves alienated after they disregarded public opinion and pushed ahead with the Bill's legislative process.

With Hong Kong's district council polls coming up in November and the Legislative Council (Legco) election next year, reopening the legislative process on the Bill now would put the pro-Beijing sector in a vulnerable position.

This could lead to Beijing losing control of the legislature. In the current Legco, pro-China or pro-government lawmakers hold 31 of 60 seats.

Beijing also needs time to heal its own wound. Although Mr Tung's mishandling of the Bill was to blame for the Hong Kong protests, Beijing's behind-the-scenes pressure was also a critical factor.

Most observers point out that Mr Tung tried to force the Bill down people's throat because he had a deadline to meet.

By postponing legislation, Beijing could rebuild an image of forbearance and restore public confidence in its principle of non-interference underlying the 'one country, two systems' unification model.

Lastly, Beijing knows full well that if the Bill were to be revived now, given the current mood in Hong Kong, its provisions would probably be much watered down.