Recent utterances from various people have given an indication of what the Central People's Government (CPG) is thinking on democratic reform as far as Hong Kong is concerned.

In 1987, the architect of the 'one country, two systems' policy in a major speech to the Basic Law Drafting Committee had this to say about democracy:

1. On separation of powers: "Hong Kong's system of government should not be completely Westernized; no Western system can be copied in toto ... for example, the separation of the thre powers and a British or American parliamentary system ... Nor would it be appropriate for people to judge whether Hong Kong's system is democratic on the basis of whether it has those features".

2. On "right policies": On the Chinese mainland, "we have a unicameral legislature ... which best conforms to China's realities. As long as it keeps to the right policies and directions, such a legislative body helps greatly to make a country prosper and avoid much wrangling".

4. More about "right policies": "Of course, if the policies are wrong, any kind of legislature is useless".

5. On elections: "Would it be good for Hong Kong to have general elections? I don't think so ... Hong Kong's affairs will .. be administered by Hong Kong people, but will it do for the administrators to be elected by general ballot? We say that Hong Kong's administrators should be people of Hong Kong who love the motherland and Hong Kong, but will a general election necessarily bring out people like that?"

6. On democracy in Hong Kong: "Even if general election were to be held, there would have to be a transition period, and preparations for the election would have to be made step by step".

7. On election on the mainland: " ... elections could be held on the mainland half a century from now."

According to Zhou Nan, the former head of the Xinhua News Agency, Hong Kong Branch, quoted Deng's words of 1987 extensively in an interview and was seen as expressing the views of the current leadership:

2. Echos: " ... it would not be suitable for Hong Kong to set up a government system that separates executive, legislative and judicial powers".

3. "Executive-led" system: "China came to the conclusion that the stable political system Hong Kong needed was executive-led and not legislative-led".

4. Speed of change: " ... by the third term (2004), directly elected LegCo seats will increae to 30 ... representing 50% of the total ... Is this kind of speed not fast enough?"

5. What violates the Basic Law: (a) The political party that won the most LegCo seats be granted governmental power; (b) a legislative-led system.

6. On 2007: The Basic Law provides for change only "if there is a need for reform. Whether there should be any reform or how to make reform, when should we push for gradual and orderly progress, and to what extent should we progress, must be based on actual circumstances. Changes should be made only if they support the stability and prosperity of Hong Kong".

1. Predictability essential: Chinese leaders believe in executive-led systems as legislative-led ones appear to be too unruly to them as there will be too much "wrangling", which is seen to cause "instability".

2. Policy embarassment: There is an acceptance that the executive has to set the "right policies" in executive-led systems, which is why the failure of Tung Chee-hwa, is such an embarassment. Nevertheless, the future selection system for the chief executive will remain tightly controlled by the CPG.

3. Balance interests: In Hong Kong's case, the emphasis also on protecting the rights of all interests (Newsletter 15/2/04) is a coded message for the interests of business interests, New Territories indigenous villagers representatives (Heung Yee Kuk), old time "leftists" etc who may not do well in direct elections. Keeping functional constituencies is the key way to "balance" interests, and therefore maintaining "stability" from the CPG's perspective.

4. LegCo headache: However, with direct elections increasing to 50% of the LegCo seats this year, the CPG recognizes that LegCo can cause problems for the Chief Executive, which presents a headache and this is the issue leaders are scratching their heads over.