With the SCNPC making an explicit decision today that universal suffrage is "out" for 2007-08 in Hong Kong, and knowing that this is highly unpopular, does it have a final move in its current strategy to lighten the blow?

The best initiative Beijing can put in motion is to ask the Chief Executive (CE) to lead a LegCo delegation to the capital to start healing the wounds in May.

1. Excess vs. Certainty: All the SCNPC was required to do under its own interpretation [eNewsletter 7/4/04] was to decide to accept the CE's report that there is a "need" for reforming the election system in 2007-08 and leave the the issue of how for Hong Kong to discuss. The decision went much further however. Beijing's aim was to achieve certainty now and leave no room for Hong Kong to raise the possiblity of universal suffrage.

2. Politically incorrect chatter: Even though the end game is clear, political incorrect chatter will likely continue perhaps with a sharper and more creative focus in Hong Kong. So, in this corner of China, debate on political reform is likely to remain strong.

3. LegCo Election: The pro-government parties will say political reform is no longer an issue and voters should focus on other things. How voters think is another matter. However, as only 50% of the seats are directly elected on a proportional basis, a 100% victory for the democrats means only 25 seats out of a total of 60.

4. Functional constituencies: 50% of the seats are voted by FCs. The SCNPC decision has ensured the survival of FCs in equal numbers to directly elected seats. Watch out for sustained chipping away of the credibility of the FCs however.

5. Sledgehammer effect: Having pounded the table with the SCNPC sledgehammer, while the reform nut has been cracked, the underlying rule of law table is also showing fault lines. By using constitutional means to solve a political issue, Beijing has used the law and legal procedures as political tools, which may well be ultimately self-defeating in sustaining "one country, two systems". This is what people are really watching.

1. Universal suffrage acknowledged: The SCNPC decision noted that there were options from "some groups and persons" who hoped for universal suffrage in 2007-08 and that advances towards universal suffrage was the will move forward "ceaselessly".

2. Plea for calm: The CE and Chief Secretary both called for calm, rationality and pragmatism. These are acknowledgement of the depth of feeling in Hong Kong.

3. Upperhand strategy: Being in the driving seat, Beijing is in a position to do what Hong Kong people want to see most - a dialogue between Beijing and the democratis. Beijing can reach out as it has the relatively stronger power position.

4. Superior move: A superior move now is for Beijing to ask the CE to organize a LegCo delegation to visit soon. This will demand of the democrats a new strategy to accept the SCNPC decision but in return for the long awaited opening of channels for dialogue.

A pipe dream ... may be but it is in fact what all sides want. The question is who will make the first move? Only Beijing can make the first move as it is the benevolent sovereign.